The Irrational

People are irrational, but predictably so.

I'm Alec Mercer. Welcome to Applied Psychology.

You're the science guy.

That's Bill Nye.

I'm actually the behavioral science guy.

Why use a barely detectable poison on one of

the only people on Earth who'd be able to recognize it?

This is where understanding human nature could be helpful.

It's called the cocktail party effect.

You're in a crowd. You're talking to one person.

Everything else becomes background noise

until you hear something like "sex."

See, everyone hears the word "sex."

What kind of sorcery is this?

We call it attentional blindness.

I didn't give up hope.

It's the hope that'll kill you.

Science says the opposite.

Damn.

Let me guess,

you get burned at the stake in the 12th century?

The Tower is the creepiest card in the deck...

misery, distress,

unforeseen catastrophe, imminent disaster,

or possibly sudden clarity.

Can the card be more specific?

That's part of the art of divination.

Ah, in my world, we call that the Barnum effect.

No, we don't.

It's named after the showman himself, PT Barnum.

His fortune tellers would offer vague, general predictions

that would apply to anybody

and convinced folks that they could see the future.

You know, you're like the behavioral scientist

who ruined Christmas.

If you don't understand

the science,

everything looks like magic.

Can't it just be fun?

Come on, let me do yours.

- Another time. - I got a meeting with Marisa.

I thought we agreed ex-wives need space.

- Technically, we didn't agree. - You insisted.

But I did listen to you,

and then Marisa called me.

Ah, I see romantic disaster ahead.

The meeting's at the FBI,

the least romantic spot in town.

And it's about the logo on the getaway van

that I remembered from the bombing.

Well, I'm just saying,

proceed with caution, Alec.

You're wading in tricky waters

going back to the well so quickly.

I don't know if you can wade in well water.

But point taken. Though, for the record,

she didn't have to ask me to meet her in person.

Read into that what you will.

Well, okay.

Oh, this one's easy.

You owe me rent.

Bye. Love you.

Love you too.

Rent's still due.

Judge expects an approval on the warrant by 3:00.

- Oh, hey, Alec. - Jace.

Hey, thanks for guest lecturing.

The students are still talking about it.

Oh, hey, any time.

I got two summer interns out of it, so win-win.

Then I guess next time, dinner's on the FBI.

You got it.

Morning, Alec.

- Morning to you. - New hairstyle.

Oh, not that new, but thanks for noticing.

- Uh, 3:00 p.m. - We'll keep you posted.

Thanks. Good news.

We found a company that matches your logo.

- Really? - After 19 years,

the FBI is officially reopening the case.

Come on in.

Turns out human beings are not really rational at all.

I mean, we make terrible decisions constantly,

like driving drunk.

So dangerous, but people...

uh, not me...

do it every day.

Thing is, we're not only irrational

but also predictable, highly predictable.

And all this has been documented by Dr. Alec Mercer,

Chair of Behavioral Sciences at Wylton University.

You familiar with his work?

No.

Oh.

Well, it's groundbreaking.

I just started as one of his research assistants.

Driving helps put a dent in my student loans.

Totally get it.

Apologies.

What the...

Here's the logo on a van owned by JoJo's Dry Cleaners.

It was located less than three miles

from Methodist Church, here.

After the bombing, we know the van turned left

on 10th Avenue.

Same direction as the dry cleaners.

Mm-hmm.

This is it.

That's what I remember seeing.

What's next?

Well, JoJo's went out of business eight years ago,

and the owner passed.

Any family still around?

His daughter relocated to Iowa.

Now that I have your confirmation,

I can reach out to an agent in Sioux City.

Thank you.

I know this isn't easy for you.

I imagine the feeling's mutual.

I'll always be here for you, for this.

That means a lot.

There's something that I wanted to talk to you about.

Marisa, the SAC's calling for an all hands.

Sorry. I gotta go.

Uh...

We'll talk later.

We have to run it by the FBI.

Just wait with us here until then.

Commuter Flight 118 crashed into the Chain Bridge

just miles outside of Washington, DC.

The pilot, copilot...

And at least 17 passengers

are confirmed dead.

Miraculously, however,

22 survivors have been rescued...

Are you at the crash site?

Yeah. This was the all hands.

I'm watching on the news.

The FAA called us in because they believe

the flight was downed deliberately.

- Deliberately? - Someone get into the cockpit?

Right now, all eyes on the pilot.

He died in the crash.

- Any motive? - Well, I was hoping

you could shed some light.

He's highly experienced, had a perfect flying record,

but weirdly, he didn't follow any protocol after takeoff.

Did they drug test?

Yeah, he's clean.

We need help figuring out his state of mind.

Any interest in giving your assessment?

I'll be right there.

The three most basic rules of flying:

aviate, navigate, communicate.

The pilot did none of those.

Alec, this is Owen Kalagian,

Hollette Aviation, manufacturers of the aircraft.

And this is Dale Newhouse, NTSB.

He's leading the investigation.

- This is Emma Liu. - She'll be running point for us.

- I've read your books. - Glad you're here.

Uh, so were there any problems with the plane?

Uh, we're still gathering data,

but there were no indications of any mechanical problems.

- Everything passed inspection. - Pilot error?

Well, seconds after takeoff, the guy switched to manual

and changed course to clip the bridge.

Nobody makes that kind of mistake,

sure as hell not a pilot

with 12 years of flight experience.

- Weather? - Well, there was

some minor wind shear, but nothing abnormal.

What do we know about the copilot?

Didn't make it either.

Once we locate the black box,

we'll know exactly what was said in the cockpit.

I understand there were survivors?

- Up to 25. - It's really quite a miracle.

We haven't ruled out terrorism.

Or suicide.

You said he was a skilled pilot?

Yeah, one of the best.

So if he wanted to kill himself and others,

why would he crash a plane

in a way that would let half the passengers survive?

I don't know.

That's why you're here.

How many commercial airlines do you think have crashed

in the U.S. in the last ten years?

- I should know this. - More than 20?

Your answer suggests

you have a fear of flying.

Along with roughly 40% of the population.

- Zero. - Sorry?

Zero commercial plane crashes in the last ten years.

Imagine that.

25,000 flights per day,

22 million per year,

not a single crash.

Until today.