The Irrational

It's been a wild ride so far, folks.

We started out with 400 players at 80 tables.

Now we're down to our top 25 players at five tables.

With me in the booth is Linda Fields,

the head of the Royal Flush Rumble Tournament.

Linda, who are you rooting for?

Oh, you're not going to get me there, Steve.

I am a neutral party.

But I must admit,

Camille Lawson's game is impressive.

Looks like she's chasing a flush.

The pot is up to 160k.

Three players have folded,

building the pot by $40k in the process,

except for Ethan Steele.

I mean, Ethan's a grinder.

He's done okay in the tournament scene.

But this year, he has really stepped up his game,

becoming a star overnight.

Now, Camille has a busted flush.

Her high card is a ten.

Her only hope is to bluff the hell out of Ethan.

Camille bets 75k.

She's trying to trick Ethan

into believing she's got trip aces.

Now, Ethan has a busted inside straight.

His high card is a jack. He should fold.

I call.

Oh, my God!

Ethan Steele just called,

forcing Camille to show her busted hand.

Ethan takes the win.

Another masterful move by Ethan Steele.

This guy is crushing it! Incredible.

How did you know?

I didn't.

I just got lucky, I guess.

I'm a poker player.

I don't believe in luck.

Ooh. This is nice.

Kylie, we have 50 bags to unbox.

It's going to take all day if you keep that up.

You don't pay me enough.

So I'll take my bonuses where I can.

Ooh!

What is this for again?

We want to measure how faux designer bags

affect a person's personal ethics.

- Ethics, schmethics. - I like this bag.

I got to take this.

Camille, it's been ages.

I'm surprised you answered.

I thought I'd be in your burn book by now.

Oh, I always have time for my favorite student.

You still playing poker?

You still think that's irrational?

- Irrational? - No.

Still, it can't be easy in a competitive,

male-dominated field.

Stereotype tax has its perks.

When they underestimate me, I play to that advantage.

Oh, it's nice to know you learned something from me.

I learned a lot from you, Alec.

Actually, that's why I called.

I'm playing in this huge tournament,

and I think one of the players is cheating.

You think or you know?

I saw telltale microexpressions.

He changed his demeanor mid-hand,

but he made eye contact.

I could really use your help to figure this out.

- How's a trip to Vegas sound? - Intriguing.

But aren't there whole security squads there

devoted to this type of thing?

Yes, but they can't see the things that you can see.

Gambling fraud isn't my typical wheelhouse.

- I know. - But this is...

this isn't just about a game, Alec.

There's a lot at stake here.

Please, I wouldn't ask for your help

if I didn't really need it.

Camille, how much trouble are you in?

Enough to call you.

I hope you're on your way to sell

whatever stocks you've got.

I don't need to sell.

I've got this tournament in the bag.

It doesn't look that way to me.

You'll get your money.

That I will.

So happy you could make the time.

- I love Camille. - Oh, you mean you love Vegas.

Same, same.

Do you think we have time for the spa,

a little pool and sun, and then a table?

Or maybe I'll hit that spot where

I can swim and gamble at the same time?

I'll admit there's no better place

to study irrational behavior.

I know you're not talking about me.

But I'm assuming that's why you brought your team.

This is so freaking cool.

I've never been to Vegas before.

Remind me to thank this Camille person.

What's her deal anyway?

She must have been important to the professor.

She was his head research assistant.

She's super smart, super detail-oriented,

super ambitious.

- Oh, I get it. - She was Phoebe before Phoebe.

Wait, does that mean you were me?

- No. - Oh.

Anyway, she abandoned the program

and moved to Vegas about a year and a half ago.

If you had the chance to work with Professor Mercer

in the most prestigious behavioral science program

in the country, why give it up?

That just doesn't make sense.

Because it's Vegas, baby.

Anything can happen.

Hi.

Oh, it's so good to see you.

You look great.

And your hair... your hair is...

Mm-hmm, long.

Yeah, it does that with time.

Well, I'm digging it.

And Professor.

Oh!

Tell me why I'm here.

Ethan Steele.

He's your basic mid-level player.

He's never made it to the final table of any tournament.

And now he's winning round after round

with super-marginal hands.

And as an expert in game theory optimal,

I can safely say what he is doing is crazy.

I saw the stats on his last game.

Bold move calling with a jack.

But that doesn't mean he's cheating.

Which is why I need your help.

Maybe it's just good luck.

I don't believe in luck,

but I do believe in statistical clusters

that influence confidence.

The more confident we are, the more we win,

so we interpret it as luck.

The confidence-luck cycle.

But that would change the plan of his losses, too.

Right?

That's why I keep coming back to the idea

that he is cheating, which honestly hurts

because we've been friends for a while now.

Guess you never know some friends.

Vegas is full of unscrupulous characters.

People's moral compass can shift

to match their surroundings.

That's one of the risks you took coming here.

Moving here was one of the least risky things

I could have done.

Going into debt as a grad student with no guarantee

of a job is a bad play.

No offense, Phoebe.

True, there are no guarantees in life.

But I tried to set you up for success.

I thought you were happy.

And you had a future in academia.

In poker, once I see my cards, I know my odds.

Then I can read the other players,

and I can make my next move.

That puts me in control.

Sorry, I have to take this.

Yeah.

That doesn't look like someone who's in control.

Camille is definitely hiding something.

That's what I'm here to find out.

But first, I'm going to find Ethan.

You ready to go?

Marisa?

- Sorry, I didn't hear you. - What's up?

The rep for the Martinez case is waiting.

We have that lunch scheduled. Remember?

Uh, can we push it?

For a third time?

Is this about Alec's case?

You know the dry cleaner's van that Alec remembered?

I just spoke to the owner's daughter.

It turns out it was an SUV.

But that van is driving around with their logo.

Probably a cover. Happens all the time in narco.

- So I'm going to reach out... - That's great.

But the church bombing is a cold case, as in backburner.

13 people dying never gets cold.

I'm just worried you're not seeing the bigger picture.

I should get back to work.

- I'll take the lunch. - I'll update you later.

Look at him.

Does he look like the best poker player?

Or even the best poker cheater?

It could all be part of his shtick.