لومړۍ 200 کرښې.
-So, to get the answer, we take the number of babies
with Down's Syndrome who test positive divided by
the total number of positives, which is 9.5
divided by 9.5 plus 49.5, equaling 16.1%,
what I trust is a somewhat counter-intuitive answer,
given the high probability of the test producing
a correct result if the baby has Down's Syndrome and
the relatively low probability of false positives.
Now, this is an example of the False Positive Paradox.
Any questions? Good.
Now, remember that the mid-term is next Tuesday.
I will be available in my office hours today, but please
only stop by if you have specific questions
on specific problems. I will not be offering an overview
of the past eight weeks. All right,
that will be all for today.
Hey Claude. How are you?
-Who are we playing tonight? -Tom and Dick.
Then the Hendersons. -Great. That means listening to
Tom clear his throat every five seconds.
Mm
hm. Let's take our seats.
-OK, I should be back around five.
Um, leftovers in the fridge if you get hungry.
OK, see you later.
-Oh, hey, are you going running today?
-I don't think so, I'm just going to read my book. Why?
I was just going to have you mail a few letters for me.
Never mind, I can mail them.
Have a good day. -See you later.
Bye sweet girl.
[Door opens}
Hey, ooh.
Oh my, oh my, aren't we getting big?
Auntie Kim's bored with her book. What do you say
we go for a little jog in the park, huh? Hm,
how does that sound? Let Auntie Kim get our jackets,
and then we can be on our way. Yeah? OK.
-Excuse me, miss? Miss? Ah, is this Pier Point Park ?
-Yes, it is. -Where is the clock tower?
-Clock tower? Um, I'm not aware of any clock tower in the park.
-How odd, I'm supposed to meet someone here,
that's what she said. See? -I don't know. I mean
Shh. Shh. Sit up. Shh.
I'm gonna remove the gag now.
Now, we're miles away from anyone, so it's not gonna
do you any good to scream.
-Annie, the baby, where is she? What have you done with her?
The baby? Is she not your baby?
Where is she? Is she OK?
-I've done nothing to the baby. I left her in the stroller
by the jogging path. Now, I'm sure she's been found already.
I'm sure she's all right. Now, you referred to her
as "the baby," not "my baby." Is she not yours?
-She's my niece. Who are you? What do you want with me?
-Your niece? How unfortunate. I was rather hoping she was yours.
Why? What do you want with me?
-All questions that will undoubtedly be
answered in due time. Now, let's get you out of this.
You'll be much more comfortable.
Here, OK. Here we go. Stay still. OK, OK. I'm just gonna
Here, OK. Here we go. Stay still. OK, OK. I'm just gonna
put this around your leg, all right? OK.
Here we go. Stay still. I'm not gonna hurt you. Here we go.
There we go. All right now, let's take these handcuffs off.
Here, OK. OK.
There we go.
No, no. I don't want to hurt you,
but if you resist, I may have to.
You must be hungry. I'll get you some food.
-Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God.
I brought you your breakfast.
Tell me your name.
Why are you doing all this?
What do you want with me?
You said I would find out in due time.
-You are to be my nourishing mother,
my alma mater, if you will.
Now, please, eat some of your breakfast, and we'll have
a nice little chat in the meantime.
Tell me your name.
Kim.
And how old are you, Kim? -24.
-Now, I noticed an engagement ring, but no wedding band.
Were you to be married soon? -Yes. In four months.
-And what do you do? -What does it matter?
-I'm just trying to make conversation,
get to know you a little bit, is all. Do you have a job?
-No. -Are you a student?
-I Just finished getting my Master's in English literature.
Well, congratulations. That's wonderful.
And, what were you planning to do with your degree?
-I Thought I might try to write a novel.
A novel? Excellent. Well here, here you will have ample time
and few distractions. I'll have to get you materials.
Now, I know that the effects of imprisonment
can be psychologically devastating. But, having a
goal, a project, a raison d'être
as it were, can go a long way to keeping you healthy.
I'm not the first, am I?
What?
-The first woman you've done this to?
-Why do you say that? -What you just said,
this whole set-up, the chains, the chamber pot,
the hand for turning the light off. You've done this before.
-You are a clever girl. -What happened to the others?
Other. There is only one other.
-What happened to her? Where is she?
-Look, I'm afraid that you've hit upon a subject that I
don't wish to discuss. Now, I'm sure that you are
fearing the worst, but you mustn't, OK? You're not
her, so please, let's talk about something else.
Anything else. -Is she dead?
You killed her, didn't you? And you're gonna kill me too. Why?
Why? Look, look, I don't know who you are or
how you got me here. Just let me go. Just let me go,
and I won't say anything.
-Please don't get hysterical, please, please.
I am not going to harm you.
You must believe that.
But I can't just let you go.
But someday...
I will let you go.
Why don't you finish your breakfast.
-I'm not hungry. -Very well then.
In that case, I'm gonna have to ask that you wear this.
In that case, I'm gonna have to ask that you wear this.
Now, I hope that we can dispense with it
in the near future, but I don't want to be bitten again.
Open up, open up. There you go. Come here.
All right, now, I'm not going to hurt you.
I'm gonna have to ask that you wear the wrist clasps too.
All I'm going to do is massage your breasts.
That's it. I'm not going to hurt you. Come here.
That's it. I'm not going to hurt you. Come here.
Shh. There you go. Stand up. Shh, shh. OK.
Shh. There you go. Stand up. Shh, shh. OK.
I have something I thought you might like to see.
As you can see, the baby was found.
I thought you might like to know that.
What is this?
-Seared foie gras, with braised fennel and
cracked pepper caramel sauce.
-Foie gras? That's liver, isn't it?
-Yes. It's a special kind of goose liver. It's delicious.
I hate liver. I won't eat it.
Just try it.
-No. Besides, that's the kind of liver that they
have to torture the goose to get, isn't it?
-It's not torture. Just try it. -No.
-Just have one bite. If you don't like it, fine.
-It's OK. I won't eat anything tonight.
All I ask is that you try it.
You're not even going to have one bite?
I'll teach you to eat liver.
Tonight I've made lamb chops, with mushroom risotto.
Butternut squash ravioli with braised root vegetables.
Minestrone soup with parmesan cheese
and fresh French bread.
Hungarian goulash with spaetzle.
-OK. I get it. I'll try anything you give me.
-Get it? You'll never get it. My purpose is to train you,
not educate you.
Fuck you.
That's never going to happen.
-How do you expect me to produce milk
if you starve me? I thought you were
supposed to be some kind of intellect? It doesn't
seem like you thought this one through.
-Home-made meatloaf with mashed potatoes
and baby carrots. Stir-fried vegetables with rice.
Tonight we are having liver. Beef liver, with
mushroom medley and a red wine reduction sauce, for me.
And for you
Wait.
Well, Liver isn't so bad after all, I see.
Well, I'm glad that this little experiment is over.
Maybe now we can go back and eat meals like civilized people.
Quite the little artist, aren't we now?
I thought you were more the literary type.
I'll have to get you a sketch pad then. And a washing coat
-I've never heard of induced lactation.
Are you sure it's gonna work? -Induced lactation by
mechanical manipulation is successful with most
women, although there are no guarantees.
-How long is it supposed to take?
Not long. Two to four weeks.
-You don't have to use the cuffs and the ball gag
anymore, Claude. I'm not gonna do anything stupid.
I'd like to believe that.
-What can I do? Even if I could harm you,
there'd be no point. I'd die in here.
What if it doesn't what if it doesn't work?
-What? -If you can't induce lactation?
There are drugs we can try, hormones to be more precise,
although I'd have to think about how to obtain them.
Of course, pregnancy would be another option.
When will you let me go?
-I told you to stop asking me that.
-I wish you wouldn't smoke in here.
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